Photo: euroleaguebasketball.net

It’s easy to get seduced into the world of mock drafts ‘best available’ lists and hype around flash in the pan or in form prospects.

With that being said, NBA mock drafts do – at the very least – offer a barometer into where a player sits among his draft cohort. But with so many different pathways to the world’s premier basketball competition, the lines continue to muddy. 

Next Star Mantas Rubstavicius, at the time of writing, is slated to be selected 49^th in next season’s NBA Draft. While it’s a start, it’s worth remembering that the entire order of the draft is still months away from being determined.

RELATED: NBL24 Talent Heavily Featured in Latest ESPN Mock Draft

Regardless of mock position, General Manager of Next Stars Recruitment Liam Santamaria believes Rubstavicius’ track record of competing in open-age competition will hold him in good stead to launch his NBL career.

“Mantas is something of a late bloomer,” Santamaria said. “He grew a bunch over the last few years and – after playing well at the 2021 Under-19 World Cup – really blew up at last year’s Under-20 Euros and led that event in scoring.

“The other thing to keep in mind about Mantas is he’s already performed well in elite professional competitions. The LKL is a strong league, and the EuroCup is far tougher than a lot of people realise, and Mantas played well in both of those competitions last season.

“It’s very difficult to make accurate projections 12 or more months out from an NBA Draft. So much changes with young players over that period of time, so all predictions for the 2024 draft, at this early stage, need to be digested with a grain of salt.

“He’s currently projected to be a late second round pick, but he has the ability – and the opportunity – to enhance those projections over the next 12 months.”

Rubstavicius is one of six Next Stars pulled to the NBL from all over the world. He’ll hit the competition after playing in his native Lithuania, Swede Bobi Klintman will arrive in Cairns with a season of collegiate experience under his belt, while Ariel Hukporti will take to the court for his second NBL season after missing Melbourne’s last campaign through injury.

AJ Johnson enters the professional ranks straight out of high school, while Alexandre Sarr played in the same Overtime Elite program that helped launch twins Amen and Ausar Thompson into the top five of the 2023 draft.

Finally, Alex Toohey is primed to tread a similar path to Josh Giddey by entering the league via the Basketball Australia Centre of Excellence.

While NBL24 looks set to host the most exciting class of Next Stars ever seen in the NBL, Santamaria says there could still be more movement in that space yet.

“With the six talented prospects we have in place, we are super excited about the cohort of Next Stars that will be playing in NBL24,” he said.

“There are still a number of clubs with a Next Stars spot open on their roster. As a result we remain in conversation with a number of elite prospects about the upcoming season.

“The bottom line for us is we think all of our current group of Next Stars have the potential to get drafted next year, with some possessing genuine, lottery-level upside.

“The job for each of these guys is to work hard, perform well, and use this terrific opportunity to both develop their game and elevate their stocks.

“There’s a toughness and physicality about the NBL game, but we also play at a tempo that’s much closer to the NBA than what you’ll find in Europe and, often, in the NCAA. A talented youngster from elsewhere around the world or an American operating in that NBA bubble, strong performances in the NBL can lead itself to opportunities in the Association.”

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Just how high Rubstavicius’ stock can rise during his tenure with the New Zealand Breakers remains to be seen, but he’s heading straight into an organisation with a proven track record of providing Next Stars a strong platform to perform.

He’ll look to follow in the footsteps of Next Stars alumni Rayan Rupert, RJ Hampton and Ousmane Dieng – plus former import Hugo Besson – in getting drafted to the NBA directly from the Breakers.

New Zealand hasn’t just established themselves as a team who will hand out opportunities to its young players regardless of the situation though. All four of those drafted players – Rupert in particular – were placed in the position in which they helped their side win games.

“The Breakers have demonstrated an ability to develop elite young talent and prepare them for the jump to NBA level,” Santamaria said.

“From ownership right through to the coaching staff, there’s an understanding of how to provide the right structures of support and opportunity for the Next Stars to develop their games, showcase their skills and, in turn, help the Breakers win ball games.”

Rubstavicius is set to clash with fellow Next Star and Cairns recruit Klintman in New Zealand’s opening game of the NBL24 season.